Case study, Collections AI · Modeled
Recovery from 20% to 30% on defaulted accounts.
Modeled on a top-5 Philippine commercial lender with about ₱29.9B outstanding. Nova Finance sits on top of the existing loan management system: early-warning scoring, risk-based routing to AI voice and SMS agents, a compliance guard on every contact, and a settlement optimizer. Here is what that unlocks at their scale.
- Lender
- Top-5 PH commercial
- Outstanding
- ~₱29.9B
- Default rate
- 4.7%
- Collections agents
- ~100
The problem
Recovery stuck at 20%.
Recovery sat near 20% on defaulted accounts. Right-party-contact on the cold dialer was about 3%. Compliance review ate weeks every quarter, and settlement offers were set by an agent's tenure rather than the data.
What we’d plug in
What we'd plug in.
Nova Finance sits on top of the existing LMS at the missed-payment branch. Nothing rips out; the model and the agents wrap the system already in place.
Early-warning scoring
A model scores every loan 30 to 90 days out, so the team works the accounts most likely to slip before they default, not after.
Risk-based routing
Segmentation sends Tier-1 outreach to AI voice and SMS agents by best time and best channel, and reserves human agents for the accounts that need a person.
Compliance guard
Every contact is logged against RA 11765 and FDCPA-style conduct rules, so the quarterly review is a query, not a scramble.
Settlement optimizer
The model recommends an offer percentage per account from the data, instead of leaving it to an agent's read of the borrower.
The modeled 12-month numbers.
Modeled on the defaulted pool over 12 months, on PH market data, not a signed customer.
- 20% → 30%
- Recovery rate on the defaulted pool
- +₱141M
- Additional recovery per year
- 4×
- Right-party-contact lift
- ~40
- Tier-1 agents reduced
- −35%
- Unrecoverable-account fees
- < 3 mo
- Payback period
Want this modeled on your numbers?
Send us your outstanding portfolio and default rate. We will model your additional recovery, agent efficiency, and payback, then walk you through it on a 20-minute call. No pitch.